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The First National Communication on Climate Change

PROJECTIONS OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND REDUCTION POTENTIALS IN UKRAINE VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT IN UKRAINE RESEARCH AND PUBLIC EDUCATION

7. Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment in ukraine

It is а matter of common knowledge that climate conditions have influenced human life and activity from mankindъs early days. It is evident that understanding changes in the climate system and climate’s interaction with human activities can result in more efficient economic and social decisions.

Given the countryъs unstable economy and it’s critical ecological problems, the consequences of climate change in Ukraine could be serious. The results of scientific research during the last few years show that climate change in Ukraine could have significant impacts on agriculture, forestry, water and coastal resources.

7.1 Climate Change Scenarios

To assess vulnerability of Ukrainian natural resources and economic sectors, General Circulation Model (Gcms) outputs submitted by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) were used. The following models were considered: the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) model, the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) model, the Canadian Climate Center Model (CCCM), the United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO) model [1]. These outputs are related to equilibrium conditions; that is, they describe climate conditions at an effective doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere. Transient simulation represents climate conditions more realistically. These scenarios are run by assuming а steady increase in CO2 concentrations (by 1% per year). In such conditions, it is possible to trace climate system inertia. This inertia is а natural lag of the system’s reaction after а change in atmospheric greenhouse gases concentration. Considering the above, an attempt was made to use output from models developed by the GFDL and the Max-plank Institute in Hamburg (MPI) for transient conditions.

Since none of the models considered reflects regional climate features, the following steps were used to create climate change scenarios for Ukraine:

  • interpolation of models outputs obtained for grid boxes into grid points, that is meteorological stations sites;
  • evaluation of differences between temperatures under 2xco2 and 1xco2 conditions for each grid point and their addition to actual temperatures;
  • assessment of ratios of precipitation under 2xco2 and 1xco2 conditions for each grid point and their multiplication by actual precipitation [2].

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7.2 Water Resources Sector

The Dnieper River is the main water thoroughfare of Ukraine. At present, water resources in the Dnieper basin as the main basin in Ukraine are managed through numerous ponds and water reservoirs located at the Dnieper’s inflows and within the riverbed, as well as through а network of canals through which Dnieper water is fed to drought-prone regions of Ukraine.

Considering the interests of all water consumers and using water resources rationally is stipulated by the Regulations of Operation for Dnieper Cascade Water Reservoirs (RODCWR) (Ministry for Water Management of Ukraine, 1981, Kyiv), as well as by the Interagency Commission on Establishing Water Reservoir Operating Regimes.

Because of Ukraine’s dependence on level of its water reservoirs, operating schedules foresee 4 zones.

1st zone — zone of full provision. All consumers are provided with water without restrictions.

2nd zone — zone of economic consumption. All water consumers are provided with water in accordance with norms. Restrictions of auxiliary needs are introduced.

3rd zone — zone of strict water conservation when water reservoirs are being drawn down below the navigation drawdown level not more that 1 m. Restrictions on irrigation and on the auxiliary needs of industry are introduced. River transportation is put into navigation duty with if the drought does not exceed 2.6 m. Water quality is inspected daily.

4th zone — zone of all consumers' restriction. To provide for the needs of inhabitants, strict limits and schedules for water supply are established.

An analysis of existing policy on water resource management gives analysts all reason to assume that under all considered scenarios of future climate change, existing RODCWR may be used since these regulations were developed for various states of Dnieper water level [3,6]. With that, the needs of various economic sectors are arranged to be met together, and the Interagency Commission may promptly correct the operating regime of water reservoirs in each particular case.

In cases of extreme drops in water level, the following adaptation measures could be considered:

  • increasing reservoirs’ usable storage; that is, the elevation of normal afflux horizons and the lowering of drawdown levels;
  • construction of Dnieper-bug hydro-junction in the Dnieper delta.

However, the measures above are rather expensive and water use restrictions will be necessary when the water level is low.

A decrease in power production by the cascade of Dnieper Hpps will lead to the necessity of searching for alternative ways to cover peak loads in the power system.

Adaptation measures for river transportation given insufficient water for the necessary navigable depths in the Dnieper for the most «unfavorable» climate change scenario may be as follows:

  • 1st version - transferring all passengers and load traffic to railway transport. This way, however, is not beneficial, since it is rather expensive and, besides, it strands tremendous capital investments made in navigation, channels and harbors and it distorts seriously the infrastructure formed to date.

  • 2nd version - renewal of navigation by creating the necessary navigation depths (3.2-3.9 m). In this case, bottom-dredging is necessary. The overall cost to guarantee navigation will be $140-160 million.

In the «unfavorable» climate change scenario when the water content of Dnieper may be insufficient to meet demands for irrigation, it may be necessary to reduce the area of irrigated land and, consequently, change the structure of crops in favor of drought-resistant crops.

Under climate change scenarios leading to а decreased Dnieper water content, the quality of surface waters may deteriorate. Therefore, bearing in mind present the high level of Dnieper water contamination, it is recommended to use in the nearest future artesian water to meet demands for drinking water.

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7.3 Coastal Resource Sector

Erosion of the coasts of the Black and Azov Seas causes serious social problems in coastal regions due to the destruction of housing, numerous resort bases, sanatoria, medicinal spas, industrial enterprises and arable land.

Table 7–1 presents data on land losses under different scenarios of sea level rise.

Table 7–1. Land losses under various sea level rise scenarios

Coastal

2050

2100

zone

22 cm

46 cm

66 cm

115 cm

Prychernomorje (Black Sea side)

Erosion

780

1110

1340

2360

Flooding

-

270

410

1600

Firths

        

Erosion

365

585

660

1580

Flooding

-

900

1750

4800

Pryazovje (Azov Sea side)

Erosion

1400

1800

2300

3500

Flooding

-

-

30

100

Crimea

Erosion

1350

1730

2100

2800

Flooding

-

110

3800

12500

TOTAL

Erosion

3895

5225

6400

9840

Flooding

-

2270

5990

19000

 

The most «favorable» scenario is that of а sea level rise of 22 cm by 2050. Under this scenario, the coastal zone will experience more erosion; nevertheless, the coast will almost retain its existing form. Firths, deltas, interspersions, and spits will not disappear.

To decrease losses from coastal erosion to а minimum, it is necessary to reinforce the coast, as stipulated by the General Plan of anti-slump and coastal reinforcement measures. Such work in the Odessa region is to be performed along а 32-km of shoreline (costing about $11 million), in the Nikolayev region — 11-km of shoreline ($33 million), and in Crimea — 141-km of shoreline ($550 million). Along the Azov coastal line, 170 km of eroded cliffs need to be protected and this will cost at least $250 million. Delivery of considerable volumes of sand to the coastal areas should be considered in addition to coastal fortification measures. Taking into account this measure, expenses for regions will amount: Odessa - $211 million, Nikolayev - $93 million, Kherson - $39 million, Crimea - $872 million. Total expenses will equal $1,208 million. With that, existing coastal protection construction (under conditions of their integrity) in the regions of Odessa, and Crimea will be sufficient to protect coasts under the 22-cm sea level rise scenario by 2050. If the sea level rise will be extrapolated up to 2100, the level elevation over the present one will be 41 cm, which will already need additional expenses for modernization of coast protection, and implementation of new measures in certain cases.

The most «unfavorable» scenario predicts а sea level rise of 115 cm by 2100. Taking into account the dynamics of sea level rise, the rate of sea level rise by 2050 may approach 10 mm per year. At any case, large-scale measures for protecting the coastal resources will be needed by 2050 and, especially and for sure, by 2100. Otherwise, the deltas of the Dnieper, Danube and Dniester will degrade, 9,840 hectares of land will be destroyed and 19,000 hectares of low-lying sections of the coastline will be flooded; many health resort villages will be destroyed completely, spits and interspersions will be disintegrated, all firths of Prychernomorje and Azov Sea will become salinized; thousands of hectares of arable lands will be salinized, and slumps in Prychernomorje and in Crimea will be created.

All of this needs detailed study in order to elaborate the National Program for Coastal Protection. At present, it is obvious that the whole coastal zone needs protection — from active cliffs to meadows. The latter, likely, ought to be fenced from the sea by artificial dams. It is quite clear that coastal protection measures will require considerable investments.

Thus, to ensure an effective adaptation, the following steps will be necessary:

  • To take as а basis the General Plan of anti-slump and coastal reinforcement measures with additions concerning fortification of free beaches by transferring large volumes of beach-forming materials to the coastal zone. This plan has no alternative under the scenario of а sea level rise of 22 cm by 2050.

  • To develop а National Program on Coastal Protection Measures that would include two main parts: а) scientific substantiation of the trends and intensity of erosion processes within the coastal zones of the Black and Azov Seas; and b) а specific plan of measures up to 2050 to adapt to predictions under the 46-cm scenario by 2050 and 115-cm one by 2100.

  • To create models of probable soil salinization in low-lying sections of the coastal zone under various scenarios for sea level rise.

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7.4 Forest Resource Sector

Public opinion in Ukraine in recent years is slowly transforming into an understanding of the fact that the importance of forests as raw materials in Ukraine is lagging behind that of their environment-forming functions essentially. At the same time, the legislative base of Ukraine is changing towards substitution of priorities in forestry. So, the Forest Code of Ukraine, adopted in 1994 [4], states that «forests in Ukraine are major means to preserve environmental conditions favorable for human life. They have restrictions in exploitation and perform not so much raw materials supply, as environment-forming and environment-protective functions: water-protective, sanitary-hygienic, recreation, aesthetic, educational and others».

To integrally assess the impact of global climate changes on forestry, а simulation model of the functional response of forestry to changes in indicators of forest conditions in Ukraine was developed. This model allows experts to combine the use of statistical data on forest conditions with experts' assessments of significance and interaction of primary functions of forests [5].

A comparison of after effects of various climate change scenarios for forestry have shown that the most unfavorable changes will take place under the GFDL scenario, and the most favorable ones under the GISS scenario (Figure 7-1).

Figure 7-1. Comparative analysis of the functional response of the forestry sector to equilibrium conditions under various scenarios

The most vulnerable forest functions under the CCCM scenario are those relating to recreation, the preservation of ecosystem biodiversity and social protection of the population (primarily in the timber industry), which will be reduced by 62%, 60% and 56%, respectively, as compared with current conditions. The least vulnerable forest functions under the CCCM scenario are: the possibility of transferring agricultural lands to forest use within contaminated zones (this possibility may be improved by more than 40% as compared with current conditions); as well as supplying the timber industry and contributing to global carbon circulation (these will be shortened by 11% and 15%, respectively, as compared with current conditions).

The most vulnerable forest functions under the GFDL scenario are those preventing migration of radionuclides and providing social protection of the population, which will be shortened by 87% and 80%, respectively, as compared with current conditions. The least vulnerable forest functions under the GFDL scenario are those providing water and soil protection, as well as the contribution of forests to global carbon circulation, which will be shortened by 31%, 44% and 47%, respectively.

According to the GISS scenario, forest functions relating to recreation and the preservation of ecosystem biodiversity that could be decreased by 11% and 13%, respectively.

In general, the forecast for the UKMO scenario is similar to that for GISS with the exception of the fact that social protection of the population, involved in the timber industry, is expected to be reduced by 10% under the UKMO scenario.

The main directions of adapting forestry to climate change are as follows: reducing the significance of the most vulnerable forestry functions for the society (exogenous approach), and introducing measures to mitigate damages that may be inflicted on the forests directly (endogenous approach). To develop adaptation strategies, а combined approach is the most effective one.

During the adaptation period of forest ecosystems to climate change according to the most «favorable» scenario, the two following strategies will likely be the most effective.

Strategy 1. Reducing the significance forest functions for the protection of the atmosphere and providing favorable conditions for agriculture and other sectors of the economy in conjunction with endogenous measures to compensate for changes in stocks, area, increment, biomass, age structure and diversity of wood species composition in forests; making forests more accessible to the population for recreation; controling forest fires, in contaminated areas; preserving historically formed forest types, fundamental types of forest-forming species, protective forest stands and shelter-belt forest stands.

Strategy 2. Reducing the significance of forest functions on wood production, atmospheric protection and providing favorable conditions for agriculture and other sectors of the economy in conjunction with endogenous measures to compensate for changes in area, age structure and diversity of wood species composition of forests.

From а general point of view, the first strategy may be characterized as endogenous with an exogenous compensation of detriment for which reduction by endogenous methods is of low efficiency. The second strategy may be characterized as exogenous with endogenous compensation of detriment of the most vulnerable indicators of forest conditions.

During forest ecosystems’ period of adaptation to climate change envisaged by the most «unfavorable» scenario, the strategies given below will likely be the most effective ones.

Strategy 1. Reducing the significance of forest functions on the protection of soil and the atmosphere, wood production, providing favorable conditions for agriculture and other sectors of the economy, as well as preventing the erosive migration of radionuclides in conjunction with endogenous measures to compensate for changes in areas covered with forest and the maintenance of the age structure of forests.

Strategy 2. Reducting the significance of forest functions on the provision of favorable conditions for agriculture and other sectors of the economy, as well as preventing the erosive migration of radionuclides in conjunction with endogenous measures on compensation of changes in area, biomass and the age structure of forests.

The first strategy may be characterized as based on an endogenous approach with compensation of detriment by forest-growing methods, since adaptation to this detriment with endogenous methods is of low efficiency. The second strategy could be characterized as the most exogenous one with endogenous compensation of detriment of the most vulnerable indices of forest conditions.

For all adaptation strategies, the implementation of the following measures is necessary:

forest growth

  • enhancement of measures on forest protection against pests and diseases;

  • implementation of resistant wood species that provide the highest productivity under the anticipated future climate conditions;

scientific

  • development of methods to monitor and forecast forest conditions;

  • development of methods to provide information support to the decision-making process for forestry;

  • development of а methodology for protecting the forests against pests and diseases;

  • extension of research on the selection and introduction of new species;

policy

  • development of legislation on criteria for forestry;

  • increase in the responsibility of forest users for forest damages;

  • financial privileges for those who use forests in accordance with socially stipulated criteria;

financial

  • creation of insurance and reserve funds to compensate expenses for maintaining the healthy condition of forests.

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7.5 Agricultural Sector

Winter wheat is the main crop in Ukraine. It represents 50% of total crop production [7]. The zone in which winter wheat cultivation is assured will, likely, move in the direction of northern latitudes, on the territories of western Polyssia and right-bank Forest-steppe under changing climate conditions. According to preliminary assessments, winter wheat’s share in total grain production could decrease and eventually equal 20-25%. At the same time, the cultivation area will increase for other crops such as barley, oats, corn, legumes (to 20%) as well as for areas under green fodder, and for perennials sowings. This will stimulate the creation of an intensive dairy cattle production zone in western Polyssia and the right-bank Forest-steppe; and meat livestock production - Steppe regions of Ukraine.

It should be noted that about 5.1-5.3 mln tons of grain are to be set aside for feeding the population. Thus, hard grain production demand will grow.

The potential climate change, therefore, will impact agricultural production greatly. At the same, time the sectorъs readiness to implement adaptation measures to anticipate the expected the climate change is rather low. One important factor affecting agriculture is the reform of ownership relations in agriculture.

A shift in the cultivation of winter wheat, including scarifying, sowing terms, depth of sowing, seed material amount, predecessor rotation, chemical processing of the soil, and agricultural equipment does not provide for а sufficient crop production level and а reduction of its main costs. A positive effect is that production growth is possible only with increased application of chemical fertilizers.

According to the CCCM scenario, the steppe crop yield and quality could be raised by 10-20% compared to indicators obtained under changed meteorological conditions only. For that, the amount of chemical fertilizers (nitrogenous, phosphoric, potassium) applied should be increased. As а result, stalkъs productivity and grain mass in an ear are expected to grow because more grains will form on an ear; furthermore, the grain quality will improve. It should be noted also that the main yield increases (by 7-15%) are achieved on account of increased nitric fertilizers.

Under the climate conditions projected by UKMO scenario, the winter wheat yield could be raised by applying increased dosages of chemical fertilizers, in the main, those nitric. If nitric fertilizers are applied, crop yield will grow by 300-600 kg/ha (1-6%).

Thus, crop adaptation options increase under optimal application of complex chemical fertilizers when domestic crops and state-of-the-art cultivation technologies are used. However, increased the application of complex chemical fertilizers will lead to an increase in production cost of $20-30 per 100 kg of winter wheat, according to preliminary assessments [8].

To maintain а stable level of crop production and to reduce production costs under climate change, new domestic crops with high adaptation abilities are to be genetically engineered.

The basic principles of state regulation in agriculture in Ukraine have just started being formed. Foremost it relates to the creation of legislation for land reform, the development of economically well-grounded measures on optimum structure of arable land, implementation of а national inventory and land monitoring program and privatization in agriculture.

Since climate change could affect the structure of Ukrainian agriculture greatly, а National Program of Agriculture Development in Ukraine is to be developed. This program should include а set of political, economic and technical measures that will help mitigate climate change impacts on geographical, social and economic conditions of agricultural production. Realizing an adaptation policy in Ukraine may start with the acceleration of land reform in Ukraine.

One of the premises behind successful adaptation policies is to increase the genetic potential of domestic agricultural crops and animal breeds. This requires implementation of appropriate research programs.

Educational programs for experts in agriculture, particularly agronomists, specialists on plants protection, agronomists-chemists, and veterinary surgeons should be amended.

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References

  1. Benioff, R., S. Guill, and J.Lee (eds.) (In press). Guidance for Assessing Vulnerability and Adaptation. Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Kluwer Academic Publishers.

  2. Country Studies Program, 1994. Guidance for Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment. Version 1.0. Washington. D.c.

  3. Кузьменко Ю.И., Ткалич п.В., Железняк м.И. ВОТОКС - система поддержки принятия решений для управления водохранилищем на основе критериев охраны окружающей среды. Сборник института кибернетики им.Глушкова «Системы поддержки принятия решений в экологии», Киев, 1992. Стр. 66-78.

  4. Лесной кодекс Украины. Киев, 1994, 55 с.

  5. Мигунова Е.С. Леса и лесные земли (количественная оценко взаимосвязей). М.: Экология, 1993. - 364 с.

  6. Шерешевский А.И., Железняк и.А., Бышовец Л.Б. Оценко изменений режима стока Днепра под влиянием каскада водохранилищ. Доклады Международного симпозиума по специфическим аспектам гидрологических расчетов для целей водохозяйственного проектирования, Ленинград, 1979 г.

  7. Пшеница/ Под редакцией Л.А. Животкова. - К. Урожай, 1989.- 320 с.

  8. Методика определения экономической эффективности использо-вания в сельском хозяйстве результатов научно-исследовательских и опытно-конструкторских работ, новой техники, изобретений и рацио-нализаторских предложений /зав. редакторша И.И. Оржеховской. - К. Урожай, 1986. - 117 с.

PROJECTIONS OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND REDUCTION POTENTIALS IN UKRAINE
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