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The First National Communication on Climate Change

Table of Contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

INTRODUCTION

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

1.1 Introduction

Climate change may be the most critical and complex environmental issue facing humanity in the last century. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UN FCCC) is the first and major international legal instrument to address climate change issues at а global scale.

The ultimate objective of the Convention is «stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at а level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system».

Ukraine signed the Convention in June 1992, the Parliament ratified it in October 1996, and Ukraine became the Party in August 1997. In compliance with Article 4.2b, Ukraine has adopted 1990 as а base year for estimating anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases not controlled by the Montreal Protocol.

Article 4.6 of the Convention gives countries with economies in transition to market economies «а certain degree of flexibility» to meet their commitments under the UN FCCC. Due to the deep uncertainties of the transition period and the futility of developing а «business-as-usual» scenario, there is а lack of sufficient quantitative information about some of the mitigation and adaptation measures, and future projections in Ukraine.

This document is the First National Communication, by which Ukraine is complying with the obligation to communicate information to the Secretariat of the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee for а UN FCCC, according to Article 4.2 and Article 12 of the Convention.

The elaboration of Ukrainian First National Communication was supervised by the Ministry of Environmental Protection and Nuclear Safety of Ukraine. The document was prepared by the Agency for Rational Energy Use and Ecology in cooperation with relevant ministries, agencies and organizations.

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1.2 National Circumstances

Ukraine is the second largest country in Europe (after the Russian Federation) with an area of 603.7 thousand km2. The population of the country (1995) is 51.7 million people.

Climate of Ukraine is of the moderate-continental type, except for а narrow belt of the Southern coast of Crimea that has features of а subtropical climate.

Since 1990 the Ukrainian economy has been facing а very deep economic crisis and it is expected that а recovering trend will begin only after а period of depression and stagnation. The main reason is that Ukraine is not in the best position for а quick recovery because its limited energy resources and its obsolete and deformed industrial infrastructure.

Since 1990 production has maintained an increasingly negative trend reaching up to а 50% decrease in 1995 of industrial production (Table 1–1). Now the trend has been maintained and а change is not foreseeable until the end of 1998.

Ukraine is one of the least energy efficient countries in the world. Ukraineъs use of energy relative to GDP is much higher than that of Western Europe or the USA. The worst is that the trend toward growing energy consumption per unit of GDP has also increased (Table 1–1).

Table 1-1. GDP, Inflation, Unemployment and Energy Intensity Trends

	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995
GDP, 109$	73.62	67.21	60.56	51.96	40.01	35.29
Unemployment, thousand person	-	9.8	128	180.9	216	126
Inflation %	-	-	1310	4830	990	420
Energy Consumption, PJ	10342.9	10017.7	8907.2	7931.5	6900.2	6630.6
Energy Intensity, PJ per billion $	141	149	147	152	172	188

Although the Ukrainian economy is in transition now, the Ukrainian Government pays а great deal of attention to the environmental protection. Many environmentally sound legislative documents have been adopted lately.

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1.3 Inventory of greenhouse gas emissions and removals in Ukraine

The Framework Convention on Climate Change calls upon Parties to: «periodically update, publish, and make available to the Conference of Parties . national inventories of anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of all greenhouse gases not controlled by the Montreal Protocol, using comparable methodologies to be agreed upon by the Conference of the Parties». This commitment was included in the Convention because it was clear to all countries that any effective climate policy must begin with an accurate inventory of gases that may influence global warming.

The GHG emissions presented here were calculated using the IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories to ensure that the emission inventories submitted to the Framework Convention are consistent and comparable across sectors and among nations. Ukraine has followed these guidelines, except where more detailed data or methodologies were available for major sources of emissions.

According to IPCC Methodology the Ukrainian inventory deals with the following five categories of GHG sources and sinks: energy systems (including transportation), industrial processes, agriculture, forestry and land-use change, and wastes.

Greenhouse gases Inventory in Ukraine include carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), nitrous oxide (NO) directly contributing to the greenhouse effect. In addition, indirect greenhouse gases, such as carbon monoxide (CO), oxides of nitrogen (NO_x), and nonmethane volatile organic compounds (Nmvocs) were taken into account.

For the 1990 base year, total GHG emissions in Ukraine were 232 882 Gg of carbon equivalent. CO₂ emissions were partly offset by an uptake of carbon in Ukrainian forests of 14 175 Gg of carbon equivalent in 1990 (Table 1-2).

Table 1-2. Ukrainian Greenhouse Gas Emissions, 1990, Gg

Gas/source	Emissions (Full Molecular Weight)	Emissions Carbon Equivalent
Greenhouse Gases
Net Carbon Dioxide	648 131	176 763
Fossil Fuel Combustio	668 332	182 272
Industrial processes	31 775	8 666
Total	700 107	190 938
Forestry (sink)	-51 976	-14 175
Methane	9 453	54 140
Energy	6 265	35 881
Agriculture	2 254	12 909
Waste	934	5 349
Nitrous Oxide	23.412	1 979
Energy	6.708	567
Chemistry	6.160	521
Waste	0.132	11
Forest fires	0.175	15
Agricultural soils	10.237	865
Photochemically Important Gases
Carbon Monoxide (CO)	7 481	-
Nitrogen Oxides (NOX)	1 243	-
Nonmethane Volatile Organic Compounds (Nmvocs)	656	-
Net Emissions		232 882

Due largely to fossil fuel consumption, carbon dioxide emissions accounted for the largest share - approximately 76 percent. Methane accounted for 23 percent of total emissions, which included contributions from agricultural activities and landfills, among others. The nitrous oxide emissions is less important comprising 1 percent of total emissions.

The relative and absolute contributions of indirect GHG to climate change is uncertain.

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1.4 Policies and Measures to Mitigate Climate Change

1.4.1 Overall policy context

During the last years the whole number of programs for the economic development of Ukraine was elaborated and adopted, the most important of them were as follows:

1. Program of Restructuring of Ukrainian Economy, 1996;
2. National Energy Program, 1996;
3. Comprehensive State Energy Conservation Program of Ukraine, 1996;
4. National Development Programs of Industrial Sectors.

Resolutions, presented in these documents, were assumed as а basis to form the baseline scenario of the development of economy and its sectors, to assess projected GHG emissions levels and mitigation measures.

In correspondence with the baseline scenario of the economic development it is planned to provide main indices of the socio-economic development of the country (Table 1-3) in the period considered, up to 2015.

Table 1-3. The main features of socio-economic development of Ukraine up to 2015

Indices	1990	1995	2000	2005	2010	2015
GDP, billion $	73.62	35.26	41.30	58.82	84.07	97.17
GDP %	100.0	47.9	56.1	79.9	114.2	132.0
Fuel combustion, PJ	9246.3	5531.5	6965.1	7557.7	8022.5	8551.9
Population, million of people	51.9	51.5	50.2	51.0	51.5	51.8
Housing fund, million of m3	922.1	978.5	1018.5	1169.6	1255.0	1360.5

Alongside with the baseline scenario the indices for the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios of the economic development were forecasted. The differences for pessimistic and optimistic scenarios are generally in volumes of energy saving, which in optimistic scenario will be approximately 10-12% higher, and in pessimistic one - 25-30% lower.

1.4.2 Overall mitigation potential

Two groups of mitigation measures were considered in mitigation analyses: policy instruments and technological options.

All these measures have а high degree of а governmental support, since they are included in the programs of the development of the economy and its sectors in Ukraine, adopted by the administrative bodies of the state, as well as in the draft documents, which at present are being under consideration of the Cabinet of Ministers, of the Parliament and the administration of the President of the country. However the possibility of realization of these measures will to а great extent depend on the investments.

Realization of such options as implementation of energy efficiency technologies, machinery, equipment, appliances, pursuing an active energy saving policy and use of the additional renewable and nuclear energy will provide the annual energy saving at а level of 2000 - 1000-1100 PJ, 2005 - 1950-2100 PJ, 2010 - 3100-3200 PJ, 2015 - 4100-4200 PJ. These measures will require around $29-32 billion investments.

The analysis of measures effectiveness, according to the criterion of а relative effectiveness, shows, that measures, connected with the decrease of natural gas losses, with DSM, with the realization of cross-sectoral energy saving programs, are the most effective ones.

The implementation of non-traditional sources, optimization of the electric power and heat utilities, the sets for pure coal combustion, installation of constructions for the refining of wastewater silt at purification stations, are the most expensive measures for GHG emissions decrease from the economic view point.

However, it must be taken into consideration, that for а whole number of measures considered the GHG emissions decrease is an indirect effect. Expedience of their realization is conditioned, as а rule, by other economic and social factors.

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1.5 Projections of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Reduction Potentials in Ukraine

In the future direct GHG emissions are projected to be lower than the emissions of 1990 in any scenario of the economic development, despite the essential growth of GDP in а baseline and especially in optimistic scenarios of the economic development of Ukraine. This is supposed to be achieved by the whole set of measures for GHG emissions decrease and the increase of CO₂ uptakes in the Forestry.

Summaries of projections of anthropogenic emissions of CO₂ CH₄ N₂O and precursors are presented in the Table 1-4, Table 1-5, Table 1-6, Table 1-7.

Estimates for direct GHG emissions are slightly different from the Ukrainian Inventory. The difference between the assessments of indirect greenhouse gases is more essential.

The largest difference is due to updating of recent Guidelines from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Other differences include updates in sources list (non-energy emissions in food sector, metallurgy, chemistry and construction).

Table 1-4. Summary of projections of anthropogenic emissions of CO₂ Gg

	1990	1995	2000	2005	2010	2015
Fuel combustion: energy and transformation industries	191296	135447	151037	173122	178539	189474
Fuel combustion: industry	220202	117182	149722	159284	168893	179562
Fuel combustion: construction	3890	4615	3462	3646	3845	4431
Fuel combustion: residential	97506	78860	91649	91317	96818	100047
Fuel combustion: agriculture	35611	22721	32255	34044	36085	37908
Fuel combustion: transport	49831	17922	41060	45985	52749	61866
Fuel combustion: other	64296	25648	34343	34072	32861	31848
Industrial processes	48815	22905	26514	27678	28225	29214
Total	711447	425299	530042	569149	598016	634352

 

Table 1-5. Summary of projections of anthropogenic emissions of CH₄ Gg

	1990	1995	2000	2005	2010	2015
Fuel combustion	292	215	233	208	209	200
Fugitive emissions from fuels	6227	4044	52737	4653	4107	3356
Industrial processes: Iron and Steel	333	98	104	104	104	105
Industrial processes: Food	68	71	57	58	57	58
Industrial processes: Construction	5	3	4	5	5	6
Livestock	2240	1700	1764	2001	2077	2154
Rice cultivation	15	11	12	13	16	22
Waste	934	1009	937	909	891	837
Total	10115	7150	8383	7951	7467	6738

Table 1-6. Summary of projections of anthropogenic emissions of N₂O, Gg

	1990	1995	2000	2005	2010	2015
Transport	0.4	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2
Other energy sources	4.5	3.3	4.0	4.2	4.3	4.6
Industrial processes	23	7	22.5	25.8	26.0	26.1
Agricultural soils	10.2	5.1	7.6	8.5	9.4	10.2
Waste	0.1	0.1	0.4	0.6	0.9	1.2
Total	38.2	15.7	34.7	39.3	40.8	42.3

Table 1-7. Summary of projections of anthropogenic emissions of precursors, Gg

	1990	1995	2000	2005	2010	2015
CO	7295	4046	5964	5958	6255	6607
NO2	2043	1140	1564	1605	1613	1666
NMVOCS	1007	471	844	884	949	1043

In the Forestry it is projected to provide the increase of CO₂ uptakes Ukraine in 2015 approximately on 20 800 Gg CE (Table 1–8).

Table 1-8. Summary of projections of removals of CO₂ by sinks and reservoirs, Gg

	1990	1995	2000	2005	2010	2015
Forestry	-51555	-64490	-66265	-68189	-70361	-72461
Land-use change	-421	-396	-378	-359	-341	-323
Total removals	-51976	-64886	-66643	-68548	-70702	-72784

GHG emissions and removals in the considered period are given in Table 1–9 for the baseline scenario. The overall reduction potential of mitigation measures is approximately 100,000 Gg CE, and projected emissions decrease in 2015 is 45,889 Gg compared to 1990.

Table 1-9. Total GHG emissions/removals in the baseline scenario

	1990	1995	2000	2005	2010	2015
Direct GHG emissions
CO2 Gg	711447	425299	530042	569149	598016	634352
CO2 Gg CE	194031	115991	144557	155222	163095	173005
CH4 Gg	10115	7150	8383	7951	7467	6738
N2O, Gg	38.2	15.7	34.7	39.3	40.8	42.3
Total, Gg CE	255192	158268	195503	204082	209310	215172
Total % compared to 1990	100	62.02	76.61	79.97	82.02	84.32
CO2 uptakes in forestry
CO2 uptakes, Gg	-51976	-64886	-66643	-68548	-70702	-72784
CO2 uptakes, Gg CE	-14175	-17696	-18175	-18695	-19282	-19850
Net
CO2 Gg	659471	360413	463399	500601	527314	561568
Total, Gg CE	241017	140572	177328	185387	190028	195322
CO2 % compared to 1990	100	58.32	73.57	76.92	78.84	81.04

In optimistic scenario of the economic development, the net GHG emission levels in 2015 will total above 220 Tg CE, that is approximately 10.7% lower than in 1990.

In pessimistic scenario net GHG emissions on the level of 2015 will total above 180 Tg CE or about 73% from the level of 1990.

A very wide range of change of indices, characterizing the future economic development and expected emission levels, is connected with а very high grade of uncertainty of future development of Ukrainian economy (Table 1–10).

Table 1-10. Ranges of fuel consumption and GHG emissions in 2015

	Pessimistic scenario	Optimistic scenario	Range	Average deviation %
Fuel, PJ	7596.4	9787.2	2190.8	12.8
Direct GHG Emissions, Tg CE	195.2	245.4	50. 2	11.5
Sinks in Forestry, Tg CE	-19.9	-23.9	-4.0	9.1
Net GHG Emissions, Tg CE	175.3	221.5	46.2	11.6

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1.6 Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment in Ukraine

Given the countryъs unstable economy and critical ecological problems, the consequences of climate change in Ukraine could be serious. The results of scientific research during the last few years show that climate change in Ukraine has significant impacts on agriculture, forestry, water and coastal resources. It is highly probable that crop yields could be changed significantly. Transformation of types, species composition, productivity and stability of forests is likely to take place in the course of climate warming within the territory of Ukraine. Coastal zone vulnerability is already а reality: the Black Sea level is rising 1.5 mm per year.

Thereby the following measures are to be realized in the nearest future:

• Optimization of current system of water resources management (for Dnieper basin, first and foremost), including increase of reservoirs usable storage, elevation of normal afflux horizons and lowering of drawdown level; alter regulations for runoff management through reservoirs;

• Providing alternative ways to cover peak loads in the power system in case of decrease of power production by Cascade of Dnieper hydropower plants;

• Development of National Program of Agriculture Development in Ukraine, which will include set of political, economic and technical measures, that will enable to prevent negative climate change impact on agricultural production. Acceleration of the land reform in Ukraine could be the first step in such direction;

• Promoting development of research programs to increase the genetic potential of domestic agricultural crops and animal breeds;

• Development of National Program on Coast Protection Measures that would include two main parts: scientific substantiation of trend and intensity of erosion processes within coastal zone of the Black and Azov Seas; and detailed plan of adaptation measures considering the most 'unfavorable' sea level rise scenarios designed up to 2050;

• Facilitating implementation of technological, administrative and financial measures to support forestry in climate change conditions, including measures on elongating timber stands life-time, forest protection against pests and diseases; introduction of stable wood species, which provide the best productivity under climate conditions being formed; rise of responsibility level of forest users for forestry integrity and others.

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1.7 Research and Public Education

Paramount to successfully mitigating and adapting to climate change is an ability to understand, monitor, and predict future changes. This, in turn, requires substantial research on the global climate system and the dissemination of such information to better enable society to respond appropriately.

Ukrainian Country Study in the frames of US Country Studies Program Support for Climate Change Studies was the first large-scale program in such direction. This program is nationally integrated effort that seeks to expand knowledge of these processes that affect climate change and to develop integrated models to predict these effects.

Ultimately, of course, the public is the true arbiter of national response strategies and policies. Thus, the public must have а solid understanding of global change science, particularly the consequences of policy options. To promote this understanding, relevant ministries and agencies direct efforts to general education, communication, and dissemination of climate change information.

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1.8 The Future

Ukraine is currently examining the question of its future participation in the intergovernmental activities relating to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.

National Action Plan for GHG emission reduction and adaptation options implementation will be developed and submitted to Government for consideration. Public education concerning climate change problems is the essential element of National Action Plan implementation. The different forms of public education will be used, for example, training courses, issues of brochures, Tv-programs, articles, etc.

Participation in U.s. Initiative on Joint Implementation (USIJI), which is а pilot program to reduce net GHG emissions and establish an empirical basis and framework for approaches to joint implementation, is envisaged.

 

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

INTRODUCTION