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The First National Communication on Climate Change

POLICIES AND MEASURES TO MITIGATE CLIMATE CHANGE

PROJECTIONS OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND REDUCTION POTENTIALS IN UKRAINE

VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT IN UKRAINE

6. Projections of greenhouse gas emissions and reduction potentials in Ukraine

6.1 Energy sector

In order to assess GHG emissions and mitigation options the following sectors and subsectors of economy were considered:

1. Fuel Energy Complex (FEC) and subsectors:
   • Electric Power & Heat Supply
   • Coal Industry
   • Oil Gas Industry
   • Oil Refining

     Electric Power & Heat Supply subsector fuel consumption was forecasted only for utilities supervised by Ministry of Energy of Ukraine. Heat and electric power generation by industrial and residential power units was taken into account in corresponding sectors, because of historical planning practice orientated not to functional but sectoral approach.

2. Industry and main subsectors:
   • Metallurgy
   • Chemical Industry
   • Machinery and Equipment
   • Building Materials Industry
   • Food Industry
   • Other Industrial Sectors
3. Construction Sector
4. Agriculture
5. Residential and Commercial Sector
6. Transport
7. Other Sectors of Economy

These sectors are selected as а result of historical planning practice and economic development forecasting together with the fact that these sectors are the main sources of GHG emissions.

A deep crisis of Ukrainian economy considerably complicates the assessment of future GHG emissions. It is extremely difficult to project the terms of economy stabilization, directions and rates of further economic development, up-to-date technologies implementation and energy efficiency improvement.

Also it is impossible to apply mathematical models and methodologies used in the developed countries and earlier used for planning development of Ukrainian economy including the regressive analysis, production functions and input - output models.

Accounting and iterative equilibrium models to forecast the development of economy and GHG emissions were used. Optimization models were applied to develop mitigation scenarios and to estimate mitigation options.

Coal, natural gas, coalbed methane, residual fuel oil, diesel oil, other oil products were considered as primary fuels. In metallurgy coke and coke gas, and in а residential sector coal briquettes and firewood, were taken into account.

As а basis for forecasting fuel for combustion national experts used National Programs of the development of Ukrainian economy, FEC, some sectors adopted or being under consideration by the Ukrainian Government (see Chapter 5).

While forecasting fuel combustion in sectors and subsectors (Table 6.1) mitigation options included in а baseline scenario were evaluated (see Chapter 5 [1]).

Table 6.1 Fuel combustion in baseline scenario, PJ

Fuel	1990	2000	2005	2010	2015
Gas*	4208	3099	3419	3727	4033
Fuel oil	834	471	508	536	536
Coal**	2634	2247	2348	2382	2508
Gasoline	497	371	405	445	506
Diesel oil	629	511	524	534	561
Others	444	376	354	399	408
Total	9246	6965	7558	8023	8552

* including natural, coke and oil refining gases etc.

** including coal, coke, coal briquettes etc.

The study results of projected GHG emissions are summarized in Table 6.2 and Figure 6-1.

Table 6.2 GHG emissions from fuel combustion in baseline scenario

Gas	1990	1995	2000	2005	2010	2015
CO2 Gg	662633	402394	503528	541471	569791	605138
CO2 Gg CE	180718	109744	137326	147674	155398	165038
CH4 Gg	291.7	215.0	233.1	207.5	209.3	200.0
N2O, Gg	4.9	3.5	4.2	4.4	4.5	4.8
Direct GHG emissions, Gg CE	182803	111271	139016	149234	156977	166589

Note: GWP factors for CO₂ - 1, for CH₄ - 21, for N₂O - 310 (IPCC, 1995)

Figure 6-1. Trends of GHG emissions from fuel combustion in baseline scenario

As Table 6.2 shows GHG emissions from fuel combustion in а baseline scenario during the considered period are expected to be lower than levels of 1990.

In order to estimate prospective GHG emissions from industrial processes, production trends for chemical industry, metallurgy, building materials industry and other industrial sectors were forecasted.

GHG emissions trends from industrial processes are presented in Table 6.3.

Table 6.3 GHG emissions trends from industrial processes

Gas	1990	1995	2000	2005	2010	2015
CO2 Gg	48815	22905	26514	27678	28225	29214
CO2 Gg CE	13313	6247	7231	7549	7698	7967
CH4 Gg	406.5	172.7	164.7	166.4	166.5	168.5
N2O, Gg	23.0	7.1	22.5	25.8	25.9	26.0
Direct GHG emissions, Gg CE	17586	7836	10077	10683	10841	11130

Summary of projections of anthropogenic emissions of precursors is given at the Table 6.4.

Table 6.4 Summary of projections of anthropogenic emissions of precursors, Gg

	1990	1995	2000	2005	2010	2015
CO	7295	4046	5964	5958	6255	6607
NO2	2043	1140	1564	1605	1613	1666
Nmvocs	1007	471	844	884	949	1043

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6.2. Forestry

Ukraine is а country with а forestry deficit. Forest land fund totals 10 million hectares, 8.6 million hectares being covered by afforestation, which makes 14.3% of а country area (this is the forested lands index). For Ukraine the 20% average level is regarded as the optimal forested lands index (that is such one, when forests influence on the environment the most favorably, fulfill their functions effectively).

Total timber stock of Ukraine is estimated in 1.3 billion m³. Evergreen plantations occupy 45% of а total area, including pine (Pinus silvestris L.) - 36%. Hard deciduous plantations total 41%, including oak (Quercus robur L.) and beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) - 33%.

Average growing-stock volume of forested area totals 4.0 m³/hectar/yr and varies from 5.0 m³/hectar/yr in the Ukrainian Carpathians up to 2.5 m³/hectar/yr in steppe zone.

It is determined in the Ukrainian legislation (Forest Code), that forests of Ukraine carry out ecological functions predominantly and as а consequence have а limited exploitation importance.

According to the economic destination, sites and functions carried out, Ukrainian forests are divided into two groups.

The first group includes forests carrying out predominantly defense functions, forest reserves, plantations, having scientific and historical importance (including genetic reserves, etc.). The second group includes forests, having defense and limited exploitation importance. The area of the first group forests totals 5.1 million hectares or 52% of а forest fund.

All forests are а state property. 72% of them are in а constant use of state forestry enterprises, the rest being transferred to agricultural enterprises for use (24%), residential and other organizations (4%).

Five natural zones are distinguished in Ukraine, each of them having its own peculiarities in forestry (Figure 6-2).

Figure 6-2. Natural zones in Ukraine

An increase of forested lands of Ukraine will allow to improve in general the unfavorable ecological situation, since а forest is а powerful natural factor, which influences the climate, soils, surface drainage forming, produces oxygen, filtrates air and water, prevents floods.

Ukraine has land areas not used in agriculture and available for afforestation (not less than 500 thousands hectares). Shelterbelts plantations were created only for 50% of agricultural areas. Intensity of erosion processes still remains а considerable one. Today legislation does not stimulate wide croplands shelterbelts planting. Besides the importance of agroforest-melioration effect of shelterbelts is misjudged by farmers.

Plantations' decline withering is one of the serious problems, significantly influencing on forests productivity for the last decade. Any scientific conception to explain the decrease of forest plantations sustainability to unfavorable factors does not exist yet. The withering of oak, pine and other plantations is periodically marked in various regions of Ukraine.

Methods, proposed by IPCC and national experts [2, 3], were used for the assessment of GHG emissions in forestry.

Baseline and mitigation scenarios of the forestry development in Ukraine were developed.

"Program of the Development of Forestry and Forest Industry in Ukraine for the Period till 2015" and "National Program of the Development of Agricultural Production in Ukraine for 1996-2005" were put into the basis of а baseline scenario. The extensive development (increasing forest plantations) and only inconsiderably qualitative improvement of forests, are established in this scenario, taking into account а difficult financial situation of the state. Fire control measures and measures of fight with forest vermin and diseases are planned with inconsiderable qualitative and quantitative improvements are planned.

In baseline scenario natural process of а slow reforestation without creating artificial plantations is envisaged on lands in the abandonment zone of the Chernobyl NPP.

The data of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, given in the "Program of the Development of Forestry and Forest Industry in Ukraine for the Period till 2015", taking into account not only the extensive increase of forest plantations areas, but а considerable qualitative improvement of а forest fund, were put into the basis of а mitigation scenario. In this scenario the indices, put in the project of "Program of Liquidation of CHNPP Accident Consequences for 1996-2000" and scientific elaboration of the Ukrainian Research Institute of Forestry and Agrosilviculture (UKRRIFA) and the Ukrainian Scientific-research Institute of Mountain Forestry (UKRSRIMF), were used.

Compared to the baseline scenario the mitigation scenario takes into account the following factors:

• Scientific optimization of volumes and structure of forest harvesting

• Afforestation of eroded lands in ravines, washes, sands

• The increase of plantations of shelterbelts forests

• The creation of plantations of forest species (including fast growing) to receive forest products of long-term use

• Afforestation of lands, contaminated as а result of accident at the Chernobyl NPP and not used in agriculture

• The increase of forest plantations biomass productivity due to the use of а genetically improved species in forest plantations

• The optimal increase of regions under forests in Ukraine

• Improvement of forests protection from fires (gradual 70% decrease of average annual level of fires from the level of 1986-1994), the increase of forests protection effectiveness from vermin and diseases (resulted in the growth of biomass increment)

The initial data and balance of carbon dioxide emissions/uptakes in scenarios are given in Table 6.5. Factors presented in Table 6.5 are aggregated ones. For the forest plantations, managed forest and urban forests these factors are calculated by multiplying annual growth rate in dry matter, carbon fraction in dry matter and CO₂/c ratio with account of shares of different species groups [2, 3]. Methodology of other factors estimation is developed by national experts and explained in details in Ukrainian Country Study on Climate Change [2,3].

Table 6.5 Carbon Dioxide Emissions/uptakes in Forestry in Ukraine

		Baseline scenario				Mitigation scenario
	1995	2000	2005	2010	2015	2000	2005	2010	2015
Forest plantations, thousand hectares	42.5	45.3	46.3	50.0	53.0	80.0	101.0	117.0	129.0
Factor, t C/hectare	2.31	2.31	2.31	2.31	2.31	2.33	2.37	2.43	2.53
CO2 Uptake, Gg	359	385	392	425	447	682	879	1041	1195
Managed forest, million hectares	8.78	8.868	8.98	9.106	9.261	9.0	9.32	9.77	10.31
Factor, t C/hectare	2.37	2.40	2.44	2.47	2.51	2.44	2.53	2.65	2.80
CO2 Uptake, Gg	76298	78038	80341	82470	85232	80520	86460	94930	105849
Urban forests, thousand hectares	95	96	97	98	99	97.5	100	104	108
Factor, t C/hectare	2.70	2.70	2.70	2.70	2.70	2.70	2.70	2.70	2.70
CO2 Uptake, Gg	941	950	960	970	979	964	990	1030	1071
Forest harvests, million m3	13.1	13.1	13.5	13.5	14.2	15.1	17.0	19.0	21.0
Factor, t C/m3	0.27	0.27	0.27	0.27	0.27	0.27	0.27	0.27	0.27
CO2 Emissions, Gg	12969	12969	13365	13365	14058	14949	16830	18810	20790
Abandonment of lands, thousand hectares	54.0	51.5	49.0	46.5	44.0	50.0	30.0	5.0	0
Factor, t C/hectare	2.0	2.0	2.0	2.0	2.0	2.0	2.0	2.0	2.0
CO2 Uptake, Gg	396	378	359	341	323	367	220	37	0
Forest fires, thousand hectares	4.2	4.2	4.2	4.2	4.2	2.1	1.8	1.5	1.2
Factor, t C/hectare	9.16	9.16	9.16	9.16	9.16	9.16	9.16	9.16	9.16
CO2 Emissions, Gg	139	139	139	139	139	70	59	51	40
Forest rate	14.5	14.7	14.9	15.1	15.3	14.9	15.4	16.2	17.1
Net CO2 Uptake, Gg	64886	66643	68548	70702	72784	67514	71660	78177	87285

Comparison of emissions/uptakes balances in baseline and mitigation scenarios (Figure 6-3) evidences that the increase of CO₂ uptakes makes about 11 800 Gg in 2015, additional expenses in the mitigation scenario of about $1220 million taking place.

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6.3 Carbon dioxide emissions assessment

Projections of anthropogenic emissions/uptakes of CO₂ from fuel combustion, industrial processes and in forestry were considered in previous subchapters.

Summary of CO₂ emissions is presented in the Table 6.6.

Table 6.6 Summary of projections of anthropogenic emissions of CO₂ Gg

	1990	1995	2000	2005	2010	2015
Fuel combustion: energy and transformation industries	191296	135447	151037	173122	178539	189474
Fuel combustion: industry	220202	117182	149722	159284	168893	179562
Fuel combustion: construction	3890	4615	3462	3646	3845	4431
Fuel combustion: residential	97506	78860	91649	91317	96818	100047
Fuel combustion: agriculture	35611	22721	32255	34044	36085	37908
Fuel combustion: transport	49831	17922	41060	45985	52749	61866
Fuel combustion: other	64296	25648	34343	34072	32861	31848
Industrial processes	48815	22905	26514	27678	28225	29214
Total	711447	425300	530042	569148	598015	634350

The high level of uncertainty of the future economic development and its functioning is essential note of all countries with the transition economy including Ukraine. Consequently the projected fuel combustion, industrial production and, hence, emissions vary considerably.

Therefore side by side with the baseline scenario pessimistic and optimistic scenarios have been developed. Variations of CO₂ emissions in these scenarios determine the uncertainty range (Table 6.7).

Table 6.7 The projected CO₂ emissions in the various scenarios of economic development, Gg

Scenario/category	1990	1995	2000	2005	2010	2015
Baseline
Fuel combustion	662632	402394	503528	541471	569791	605138
Industrial processes	48815	22905	26514	27678	28225	29214
Total	711447	425299	530042	569149	598016	634352
Pessimistic
Fuel combustion	662632	402394	466207	494388	517417	541348
Industrial processes	48815	22905	25359	26092	26622	27778
Total	711447	425299	491566	520480	544039	569126
Optimistic
Fuel combustion	662632	402394	541725	599926	649712	692425
Industrial processes	48815	22905	27360	30708	31602	32107
Total	711447	425299	569085	630634	681314	724532

As а Table 6.7 shows the future direct CO₂ emissions are expected to exceed the 1990 level only in optimistic scenario in 2015 and this excess will total approximately 1%.

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6.4. Agriculture

Livestock, rice cultivation and the use of nitric fertilizers were considered as the emissions sources in the Ukrainian agriculture. GHG emissions factors were taken in correspondence with IPCC recommendations. Emissions assessment was carried out for three scenarios of the economic development of Ukraine - optimistic, pessimistic and baseline. Officially ratified documents, where the problems of the economic and agricultural development of the country are considered, were used to form these scenarios.

In accordance with the baseline forecast, livestock and poultry trends in the country, and rice cultivation areas are given in Table 6.8. GHG emissions in agriculture in the baseline scenario are presented in Table 6.9.

Table 6.8 Livestock and poultry trends, and rice cultivation areas in Ukraine

	1990	1995	2000	2005	2010	2015
Dairy cattle, thousand of heads	8 528	7 818	6 800	6 600	6 400	6 200
Beef cattle, thousand of heads	16 667	11 152	13 200	16 400	17 599	18 800
Sheep and goats, thousand of heads	9 003	3 200	4 000	5 010	5 996	7 000
Horses, thousand of heads	754	740	800	897	999	1 300
Swine, thousand of heads	19 950	13 250	15 500	19 000	19 667	20 000
Poultry, million of heads	255	146	190	205	215	230
Rice cultivation areas, hectares	0.0281	0.02	0.023	0.025	0.030	0.040

Table 6.9 Projected methane and nitrous oxide emissions in agriculture

Emission sources	1990	1995	2000	2005	2010	2015
CH4 emissions, Gg
Livestock	2240	1698	1763	2001	2077	2154
Rice	15.17	10.79	12.41	13.51	16.19	21.59
Total	2255.17	1708.79	1775.41	2014.51	2093.19	2175.59
N2O emissions, Gg
Nitric fertilizers	10.2	5.12	7.6	8.5	9.4	10.15
Direct GHG emission, Gg CE	13777	10227	10814	12259	12782	13321

As it is seen from Table 6.9, future GHG emissions in agriculture in the baseline scenario are expected to be lower, than the emission levels of 1990.

Uncertainty analysis in this category was carried out on the basis of forecasting cattle, poultry, areas under rice and nitric fertilizers use in pessimistic and optimistic scenarios of the economic development. Variations of methane and nitrous oxide emissions in these scenarios determine the uncertainty range (Table 6.10).

As it is seen from Table 6.10, the emission levels in 2015 are expected to exceed the level of 1990 only in the optimistic scenario of the economic development. However, this excess is comparatively small and totals approximately 1.33% for CH₄ and 8.3% for N₂O.

Table 6.10 Projected methane and nitrous oxide emissions in agriculture in various scenarios

Scenario	1990	1995	2000	2005	2010	2015
CH4 emissions, Gg
Pessimistic	2255	1709	1771	1848	1924	2008
Baseline	2255	1709	1775	2014	2093	2175
Optimistic	2255	1709	1801	1981	2135	2285
N2O emissions, Gg
Pessimistic	10.2	5.12	6.2	7.1	7.9	8.5
Baseline	10.2	5.12	7.6	8.5	9.4	10.15
Optimistic	10.2	5.12	8.0	9.1	10.1	11.05

The assessment of mitigation options in agriculture are carried on by national and US experts. It is one of series of country studies funded by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and was prepared by Winrock International Institute for Agricultural Development for the Global Change Division of EPA. The main attention is paid to the livestock production, especially to cattle industry in Ukraine, а major livestock-producing country. The first steps of this work were reflected in Report [4]. The objectives of the study were to compile information and prepare recommendations regarding the livestock of Ukraine and the potential for reducing methane emissions to: (1) sensitize decision-makers in government, science and agriculture; (2) prepare for а pilot program to demonstrate strategies to reduce the methane emissions; (3) demonstrate the need to increase livestock productivity in Ukraine; and (4) stimulate development of the livestock sector in Ukraine.

The results of this study and interactions with Ukrainian institutions and individuals clearly identify concepts and ideas to reduce methane emissions in cattle while also increasing product output per feed resource input. Most of these have been previously discussed by scientists (World Bank, 1993), including Ukrainian and Russian experts. The economic structure driving producer decisions is changing, and are expected to allow and encourage economically sound and efficient resource use for milk and meat production.

The core of recommendations for mitigating methane emissions in Ukraine is as follows:

1. Improve production efficiency. Efficiency is achieved by increasing milk and meat production per cow, which requires better quality feeds and often more feed per cow. However, the amount of feed units needed to produce а given amount of milk can be reduced as fewer cows are necessary. Meeting the maintenance requirement of the total herd will require а smaller proportion of feed in relation to that needed for milk production. Increasing the production efficiency would result in fewer cows, requiring less total feed to produce the same amount of milk. Increasing the daily weight gain decreases the time needed to bring animals to slaughter weight. Reducing the number of cows and the feed requirement would make more land area available to produce food crops for consumption and export, reduce the labor required per kg of milk and meat produced, and reduce capital expenditures for buildings, equipment, and so forth, while increasing profit.

2. Improve forage quality. Grasses and legumes should be harvested at early bloom stage, thus increasing digestible energy by 10% to 15% and digestible protein by 30% to 50%.

3. Improve crop production. High yielding and drought resistant varieties of maize, soybean, rapeseed, lucerne, and other crops for livestock feed should be developed to produce under Ukrainian conditions. Modern harvesting machines and repair parts are necessary for timely harvest of forages and grains. Storage losses of hay and grain can be reduced by providing adequate on-farm storage facilities.

4. Improve pastures. Improved pastures and pasture rotation practices are not used extensively in Ukraine. Many pastures are overgrazed. Pastures seeded to а mixture of grass and legumes and properly managed and fertilized could provide high quality feed for dairy cows and heifers during about 5 month of the year.

5. Provide adequate protein, minerals, and vitamines. Improving the quality of forages could be one of the most cost-effective ways to increase protein. An adequate supply of minerals and vitamins is also needed to balance the diets. If domestic sources are not available, these nutrients should be imported.

6. Reduce milk fed to calves. If the price of milk increases and it becomes more economic to feed grain, dry calf starter should replace milk at an earlier age.

7. Provide veterinary supplies. Since few pharmaceuticals are produced in Ukraine, arrangements should be made to import vaccines, antibiotics, and other drugs needed to treat and prevent diseases and parasites of livestock.

8. Install modern milking equipment.

9. Increase the genetic potential. Better methods of production record keeping and sire selection are necessary so that genetically superior animals are used by the artificial insemination centers.

10. Assist private farmers. There is general agreement that independent, privately owned and operated farms are more efficient than state and collective farms.

11. Use of bovine somatotropin. Approximately 12% increased milk production and а 9% decrease in methane output can be immediately achieved by the use of bovine somatotropin.

12. Increase research and education.

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6.5. Methane Emissions Assessment

Methane emissions and the analysis of mitigation measures were estimated for the production, transportation, refining and storage of fossil fuel, for solid wastes and wastewater. Emissions from fuel combustion and in agriculture were considered in corresponding categories.

In order to assess fugitive emissions from fuels, production, storage, refining, transportation of fossil fuels and emission factors for three scenarios of the economic development were forecasted.

Fuel production, storage, refining and transportation for the baseline scenario were projected on the basis of National Energy Program of Ukraine and the programs of the development of separate FEC sectors.

While projecting methane emission factors the following matters, caused their considerable future decrease, were taken into account in this category of emission sources.

A considerable share of CH₄ emission is connected with the extremely unsatisfactory exploitation of gas sector, especially in end-use consumers. The reduction of gas losses does not require considerable investment and in the prospective emissions factors are expected to decrease essentially.

Side by side with this, the introduction of up-to-date technologies of oil and gas production should provide the decrease of emission factors to the level of the developed countries.

One of the main tasks, which is put by the Government, is to increase the share of utilized methane on existing mines and to implement preliminary degasation of mine fields, destined for а new construction and reconstruction. This will allow to decrease methane emission factors per ton of produced coal. Hence the emissions in new mines will be considerably lower, than in the old ones.

Methane emission factors in this category are given in Table 6.11, and projections of fuel production, transportation, refining and storage for the baseline scenario - in Table 6.12.

Table 6.11 Methane emission factors trends

Category	1990	1995	2000	2005	2010	2015
Gas production, Gg/billion m3	25.7	25	20	15	12.5	10
Gas transportation and storage, Gg/billion m3	18.12	18.12	18	15	12	8
Coal mining and Post-mining activity (new mines), Gg/million t	-	-	12.5	10	9	8.5
Coal mining and Post-mining (old mines), Gg/million t	17	16.9	16	15.5	14.5	13.5
Oil production, Gg/million t	0.1868	0.1868	0.186	0.175	0.17	0.15
Oil refining, Gg/million t	0.04146	0.04146	0.04146	0.04146	0.04146	0.04146
Oil storage, Gg/million t	0.00746	0.00746	0.00746	0.00746	0.00746	0.00746

Table 6.12 Fuel production, transportation, refining, storage and methane emissions trends

	1990	1995	2000	2005	2010	2015
Gas production, billion m3	28.1	18.2	22	33.55	35.3	35
Gas transportation and storage, billion m3	149	120	135	125	120	115
Coal mining and Post-mining activity (new mines), million t	0	0	10.155	30.86	44.06	62.66
Coal mining and Post-mining activity (old mines), million t	164.8	83.6	142.045	126.64	125.94	114.84
Oil production, million t	5.3	4.03	4.04	5.7	6.6	6.6
Oil refining, million t	58.1	15.7	47	47	47	49
Oil storage, million t	58.1	15.7	47	47	47	49
Methane emissions, Gg	6227	4044	5273	4653	4107	3356

Methane emissions in this category are projected to considerably decrease and in 2015 total 54% compared to 1990.

In the category . Wastes. municipal solid waste (MSW), municipal and industrial wastewater were taken into account.

To assess methane emissions from MSW the volumes of their generation, processing at waste incineration plants and storage on landfills (see Table 6.13) were forecasted, and to assess emissions from wastewater а number of population and wastewater in industrial sectors were projected.

Table 6.13 Municipal Solid Waste generation, storage and incineration trends, million t

	1990	1995	2000	2005	2010	2015
Annual MSW generation	11	11.8	12.87	14.04	15.31	16.69
MSW landfilled	10.12	11	10.17	9.84	9.61	8.99
MSW incinerated	0.88	0.8	2.7	4.2	5.7	7.7

The implementation of new solid waste treating facilities is the main mitigation measure, allowing to reduce the storage of MSW on landfills and methane emissions, approximately by 530-550 Gg.

The enlarged introduction of technologies (capacity is above 100 thousand of m³ of wastewater per day) of sediment anaerobic fermentation in methane tanks is planned, that will allow to increase methane recuperation during wastewater refining from 6.24 Gg in 1990 up to 17.5-18.9 Gg in 2015. Methane emissions trends from municipal and industrial wastewater are presented in Table 6.14.

Table 6.14 Methane emissions trends from municipal and industrial wastewater, Gg

	1990	1995	2000	2005	2010	2015
Municipal wastewater	34.46	34.34	31.71	30.85	29.89	28.16
Industrial wastewater	14.07	11.67	14.94	17.44	20.22	22.32
Total	48.53	46.01	46.65	48.29	50.11	50.48

Total methane emissions (Table 6.15) are expected to considerably decrease and on the level of 2015 are 34% lower than the level of 1990.

Table 6.15 Summary of projections of anthropogenic emissions of CH₄gg

	1990	1995	2000	2005	2010	2015
Fuel combustion	292	215	233	208	209	200
Fugitive emissions from fuels	6227	4044	5273	4653	4107	3356
Industrial processes: Iron and Steel	333	98	104	104	104	105
Industrial processes: Food	68	71	57	58	57	58
Industrial processes: Construction	5	3	4	5	5	6
Livestock	2240	1700	1764	2001	2077	2154
Rice cultivation	15	11	12	13	16	22
Waste	934	1009	937	909	891	837
Total	10115	7150	8383	7951	7467	6738

Variations of nitrous oxide emissions in optimistic and pessimistic scenarios determine the uncertainty range (Table 6.16). In each scenario of the economic development nitrous oxide emissions are projected to be higher compared to 1990 due to increasing nitric and adipic acids production.

Table 6.16 Nitrous oxide emissions in various scenarios, Gg

Source	1990	1995	2000	2005	2010	2015
Baseline
Fuel combustion	4.9	3.5	4.0	4.4	4.5	4.8
Industrial processes	23.0	7.1	22.5	25.8	26.0	26.1
Agriculture	10.2	5.1	7.6	8.5	9.4	10.2
Waste	0.13	0.12	0.41	0.63	0.86	1.2
Total	38.23	15.82	34.51	39.33	40.76	42.3
Pessimistic
Fuel combustion	4.9	3.5	3.9	4.1	4.2	4.4
Industrial processes	23.0	7.1	22.3	24.0	24.2	24.4
Agriculture	10.2	5.1	6.2	7.1	7.9	8.5
Waste	0.13	0.12	0.33	0.48	0.78	1.01
Total	38.23	15.82	32.73	35.68	37.08	38.31
Optimistic
Fuel combustion	4.9	3.5	4.4	4.9	5.1	5.4
Industrial processes	23.0	7.1	24.1	27.4	27.6	27.7
Agriculture	10.2	5.1	8.0	9.1	10.1	11.1
Waste	0.13	0.12	0.48	0.71	1.01	1.31
Total	38.23	15.82	36.98	42.11	43.81	45.51

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6.6.nitrous oxide emissions assessment

Projections of anthropogenic N₂O emissions from fuel combustion, industrial processes and agriculture were considered in previous subchapters. The IPCC Methodology [6, 18] and waste incineration forecast were used to assess N₂O emissions in the category . Waste. .

Summary of projections of anthropogenic emissions of N₂O is presented in the Table 6.17. The increase of relative share of category . Waste. in the total emissions is caused by implementation of new waste incinerated facilities.

Table 6.17 Summary of projections of anthropogenic emissions of N₂O, Gg

	1990	1995	2000	2005	2010	2015
Transport	0.4	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2
Other energy sources	4.5	3.3	4.0	4.2	4.3	4.6
Industrial processes	23	7	22.5	25.8	26.0	26.1
Agricultural soils	10.2	5.1	7.6	8.5	9.4	10.2
Waste	0.1	0.1	0.4	0.6	0.9	1.2
Total	38.2	15.7	34.7	39.3	40.8	42.3

Variations of nitrous oxide emissions in optimistic and pessimistic scenarios determine the uncertainty range (Table 6.18). In each scenario of the economic development nitrous oxide emissions are projected to be higher compared to 1990 largely due to increasing nitric and adipic acids production.

Table 6.18 Nitrous oxide emissions in various scenarios, Gg

Source	1990	1995	2000	2005	2010	2015
Baseline
Fuel combustion	4.9	3.5	4.0	4.4	4.5	4.8
Industrial processes	23.0	7.1	22.5	25.8	26.0	26.1
Agriculture	10.2	5.1	7.6	8.5	9.4	10.2
Waste	0.13	0.12	0.41	0.63	0.86	1.20
Total	38.23	15.82	34.51	39.33	40.76	42.30
Pessimistic
Fuel combustion	4.9	3.5	3.9	4.1	4.2	4.4
Industrial processes	23.0	7.1	22.3	24.0	24.2	24.4
Agriculture	10.2	5.1	6.2	7.1	7.9	8.5
Waste	0.13	0.12	0.33	0.48	0.78	1.01
Total	38.23	15.82	32.73	35.68	37.08	38.31
Optimistic
Fuel combustion	4.9	3.5	4.4	4.9	5.1	5.4
Industrial processes	23.0	7.1	24.1	27.4	27.6	27.7
Agriculture	10.2	5.1	8.0	9.1	10.1	11.1
Waste	0.13	0.12	0.48	0.71	1.01	1.31
Total	38.23	15.82	36.98	42.11	43.81	45.51

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6.7. Differences between Estimates in the Mitigation Measures Analysis and Inventory

Estimates for direct GHG emissions are slightly different from the National Inventory reported in Chapter 4 of this report. The difference between the assessments of indirect greenhouse gases is more essential.

The largest difference is due to updating of recent Guidelines from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Other differences not reflected in Chapter 4 include updates in sources list (non-energy emissions in food sector, metallurgy, chemistry and construction), and improvements in fossil fuel emission coefficients.

Because of these differences, the 1990 Inventory values reported in Chapter 4 cannot be compared to projections of future Ukrainian emissions presented in this chapter to estimate changes in emission levels over time. However, each chapter is internally consistent.

6.8. Summary of GHG Emissions Projections

In the future direct GHG emissions are projected to be lower than the emissions of 1990 in any scenario of the economic development, despite the essential growth of GDP in а baseline and especially in optimistic scenarios of the economic development of Ukraine. This is supposed to be achieved by the whole set of measures for GHG emissions decrease and the increase of CO₂ uptakes in the Forestry.

In the baseline scenario it is projected to implement mitigation measures with overall potential of 100 000 Gg CE and therefore emissions at the level of 2015 will be 45889 Gg CE less than in 1990.

GHG emissions and removals trends are given in Table 6.19 for the baseline scenario.

Table 6.19 Total GHG emissions/removals in the baseline scenario

	1990	1995	2000	2005	2010	2015
Direct GHG emissions
CO2 Gg	711447	425299	530042	569149	598016	634352
CO2 Gg CE	194031	115991	144557	155222	163095	173005
CH4 Gg	10115	7150	8383	7951	7467	6738
N2O, Gg	38.2	15.7	34.7	39.3	40.8	42.3
Total, Gg CE	255192	158268	195503	204082	209310	215172
Total % compared to 1990	100	62.02	76.61	79.97	82.02	84.32
CO2 uptakes in forestry
CO2 uptakes, Gg	-51976	-64886	-66643	-68548	-70702	-72784
CO2 uptakes, Gg CE	-14175	-17696	-18175	-18695	-19282	-19850
Net
CO2 Gg	659471	360413	463399	500601	527314	561568
Total, Gg CE	241017	140572	177328	185387	190028	195322
CO2 % compared to 1990	100	58.32	73.57	76.92	78.84	81.04

In optimistic scenario of the economic development, the net GHG emission levels in 2015 will total above 220 Tg CE, that is approximately 10.7% lower than in 1990.

In pessimistic scenario net GHG emissions on the level of 2015 will total above 180 Tg CE or about 73% from the level of 1990.

A very wide range of change of indices, characterizing the future economic development and expected emission levels is connected with а very high grade of uncertainty of future development of Ukrainian economy (Table 6.20).

Table 6.20 Ranges of fuelconsumption and GHG emissions in 2015

	Pessimistic scenario	Optimistic scenario	Range	Average deviation %
Fuel, PJ	7596.4	9787.2	2190.8	12.8
Direct GHG Emissions, Tg CE	195.2	245.4	50. 2	11.5
Sinks in Forestry, Tg CE	-19.9	-23.9	-4.0	9.1
Net GHG Emissions, Tg CE	175.3	221.5	46.2	11.6

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References

1. Country study on Climate Change in Ukraine: Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Options Analysis. Final Report, Agency for Rational Energy Use and Ecology, Kyiv,1996.

2. Country study on Climate Change in Ukraine: Development of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory. Final Report. Agency for Rational Energy Use and Ecology, Kyiv,1995.

3. Country study on Climate Change in Ukraine: Development of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory. Final Report. (Supplement). Agency for Rational Energy Use and Ecology, Kyiv,1995.

4. Reducing Methane Emissions from Ruminant Livestock: Ukraine Prefeasibility Study. Final Report. Winrock International Institute for Agricultural Development, Morrilton, Arcansas, 1995.

5. Country study on Climate Change in Ukraine. Final Report, Agency for Rational Energy Use and Ecology, Kyiv,1997.

POLICIES AND MEASURES TO MITIGATE CLIMATE CHANGE

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VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT IN UKRAINE